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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/7914

Title: Estimating the impact of vaccination using age-time dependent incidence rates of hepatitis B
Authors: HENS, Niel
AERTS, Marc
SHKEDY, Ziv
KIMANI, Peter Kung'U
KOJOUHOROVA, Mira
VAN DAMME, Pierre
Beutels, P.
Issue Date: 2008
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Citation: EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION, 136. p. 341-351
Abstract: The objective of this study is to model the age-time dependent incidence of hepatitis B while estimating the impact of vaccination. While stochastic models/time series have been used before to model hepatitis B cases in the absence of knowledge on the number of susceptibles, this paper proposes to use a method that fits into the generalized additive model framework. Generalized additive models with penalized regression splines are used to exploit the underlying continuity of both age and time in a flexible nonparametric way. Based on a unique case notification dataset, it is shown that the implemented immunization programme in Bulgaria resulted in a significant decrease in incidence for infants in their first year of life with 82% (79%-84%). Moreover, it is shown that conditional on an assumed baseline susceptibility percentage; a smooth force of infection profile can be obtained from which two local maxima were observed at ages 9 and 24.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/7914
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268807008692
ISI #: 000259198300006
Category: A1
Type: Journal Contribution
Validation: ecoom, 2009
Appears in Collections: Research publications

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