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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/2817

Title: Role of exposure in analysis of road accidents - A Belgian case study
Authors: VAN DEN BOSSCHE, Filip
WETS, Geert
BRIJS, Tom
Issue Date: 2005
Publisher: TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD NATL RESEARCH COUNCIL
Citation: TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD, 1908. p. 96-103
Abstract: Exposure is a key variable in traffic safety research. In the literature, it is noted as the first and primary determinant of traffic safety. In many cases, however, no valid exposure measure is available. In Belgium, monthly traffic counts for 12 years are available. This offers the opportunity to investigate the added value of exposure in models, next to legal, economic, and climatologic variables. Multiple regression with autoregressive moving average (ARMA) errors is used to quantify the impact of these factors on aggregated traffic safety. For each dependent variable, a model with and without exposure is constructed. The models show that exposure is significantly related to the number of accidents with persons killed and seriously injured and to the corresponding victims, but not to the lightly injured outcomes. Moreover, the addition or deletion of exposure does not influence the effects of the remaining variables in the model. The effects of exposure clearly depend on the type of measure used and on the time horizon considered. The framework of a regression model with ARMA errors allows for missing variables being accounted for by the error term. Even without a variable such as exposure, valid models can be constructed.
Notes: Limburgs Univ Ctr, Transportat Res Inst, B-3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium.Van den Bossche, F, Limburgs Univ Ctr, Transportat Res Inst, Univ Campus,Gebouw D, B-3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/2817
DOI: 10.3141/1908-12
ISI #: 000234682300012
ISSN: 0361-1981
Category: A1
Type: Journal Contribution
Validation: ecoom, 2007
Appears in Collections: Research publications

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