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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/25783

Title: A Fuzzy Cognitive Map Approach Applied in Cost-Benefit Analysis for Highway Projects
Authors: Bagdath, Muhammed Emin Cihangir
Akbiyikli, Rifat
Papageorgiou, Elpiniki I.
Issue Date: 2017
Publisher: SPRINGER
Abstract: Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is a method widely used all over the world for transport project appraisal. However, this method needs to handle the inherent uncertainty which affects the results negatively. In a highway project, there are high uncertainties due to a lack of data, future predictions, economic indeterminacy, etc. In conventional approaches, a risk analysis, which is based primarily on a sensitivity analysis and/or Monte Carlo simulation, is conducted in order to solve the problems mentioned above. However, these approaches present some main drawbacks. This study aims to investigate the usability and utility of a new approach in highways CBA in order to cope with uncertainty easily and in a more userfriendly way. To achieve the above-cited goal, the technique of a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) was utilized due to its popularity in modeling complex problems. A decisionmaking FCM model including a RISK parameter was developed by experienced people/experts in this scientific domain to assess benefits and costs in highway projects. The developed FCM model focuses on minimizing the effects of uncertainty in the CBA for highways. Therefore, the concepts of conventional CBA were defined within the domain of risk analysis. The performance of the developed FCM model was tested through actual feasibility studies as well as through a specific case study. As a result of comparisons, promising results for validation of the developed FCM model are obtained.
Notes: [Bagdath, Muhammed Emin Cihangir] Sakarya Univ, Engn Fac, Dept Civil Engn, Sakarya, Turkey. [Akbiyikli, Rifat] Duzce Univ, Technol Fac, Dept Civil Engn, Duzce, Turkey. [Papageorgiou, Elpiniki I.] Hasselt Univ, Fac Business Econ, Hasselt, Belgium. [Papageorgiou, Elpiniki I.] Technol Educ Inst TEI Cent Greece, 3rd Km Old Natl Rd Lamia Athens, Lamia 35100, Greece.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/25783
DOI: 10.1007/s40815-016-0252-3
ISI #: 000412896700018
ISSN: 1562-2479
Category: A1
Type: Journal Contribution
Appears in Collections: Research publications

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