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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/19142

Title: Integrating between-host transmission and within-host immunity to analyze the impact of varicella vaccination on zoster
Authors: Ogunjimi, Benson
Willem, Lander
Beutels, Philippe
Hens, Niel
Issue Date: 2015
Citation: ELIFE, 4, Art. N° e07116
Abstract: Varicella-zoster virus (VZV) causes chickenpox and reactivation of latent VZV causes herpes zoster (HZ). VZV reactivation is subject to the opposing mechanisms of declining and boosted VZV-specific cellular mediated immunity (CMI). A reduction in exogenous re-exposure 'opportunities' through universal chickenpox vaccination could therefore lead to an increase in HZ incidence. We present the first individual-based model that integrates within-host data on VZV-CMI and between-host transmission data to simulate HZ incidence. This model allows estimating currently unknown pivotal biomedical parameters, including the duration of exogenous boosting at 2 years, with a peak threefold to fourfold increase of VZV-CMI; the VZV weekly reactivation probability at 5% and VZV subclinical reactivation having no effect on VZV-CMI. A 100% effective chickenpox vaccine given to 1 year olds would cause a 1.75 times peak increase in HZ 31 years after implementation. This increase is predicted to occur mainly in younger age groups than is currently assumed.
Notes: [Ogunjimi, Benson; Willem, Lander; Beutels, Philippe; Hens, Niel] Univ Antwerp, Vaccine & Infect Dis Inst, Ctr Hlth Econ Res & Modeling Infect Dis, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium. [Ogunjimi, Benson; Willem, Lander; Beutels, Philippe; Hens, Niel] Hasselt Univ, Interuniv Inst Biostat & Stat Bioinformat, Hasselt, Belgium. [Willem, Lander] Univ Antwerp, Dept Math & Comp Sci, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium. [Beutels, Philippe] Univ New S Wales, Sch Publ Hlth & Community Med, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/19142
DOI: 10.7554/eLife.07116
ISI #: 000373850000001
ISSN: 2050-084X
Category: A1
Type: Journal Contribution
Validation: ecoom, 2017
Appears in Collections: Research publications

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