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Title: Assessing the risk of measles resurgence in a highly vaccinated population: Belgium anno 2013
Authors: Hens, Niel
Abrams, Steven
Theeten, Heidi
Goeyvaerts, Nele
Lernout, Tinne
Leuridan, Elke
Van Kerckhove, Kim
Goossens, Herman
Van Damme, Pierre
Beutels, Philippe
Issue Date: 2015
Citation: EUROSURVEILLANCE, 20 (1)
Abstract: Despite long-standing two-dose measles-mumpsrubella (MMR) vaccination, measles outbreaks still occur in highly vaccinated European populations. For instance, large measles outbreaks occurred in France (2008–13), the United Kingdom (2012–13) and the Netherlands (2012). Based on a multicohort model approach, using spatial serological survey data, MMR vaccination coverage data and data on social contacts, we found effective reproduction numbers significantly higher than 1 for measles in Belgium. This indicates that at one of the expected re-introductions, a measles outbreak is likely to spread, especially when it occurs during school term. The predicted average effective reproduction number increased over a 30-year time span from 1.3 to 2.2 and from 1.9 to 3.2 for basic reproduction numbers of 12 and 18, respectively. The expected relative measles incidence was highest in infants under one year of age, in adolescents and young adults. In conclusion, gradually increasing proportions of susceptible adolescents and young adults provide through their highly active social life an avenue for measles to resurge in large outbreaks upon re-introduction in Belgium, especially during school terms. Infants form an important vulnerable group during future measles outbreaks.
Notes: [Hens, N.; Abrams, S.; Santermans, E.; Goeyvaerts, N.; Van Kerckhove, K.] Hasselt Univ, Interuniv Inst Biostat & Stat Bioinformat, Hasselt, Belgium. [Hens, N.; Goeyvaerts, N.; Beutels, P.] Univ Antwerp, WHO Collaborating Ctr, Ctr Hlth Econ Res & Modelling Infect Dis, Vaccine & Infect Dis Inst, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium. [Theeten, H.; Lernout, T.; Leuridan, E.; Van Kerckhove, K.; Van Damme, P.] Univ Antwerp, WHO Collaborating Ctr, Ctr Evaluat Vaccinat, Vaccine & Infect Dis Inst, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium. [Goossens, H.] Univ Antwerp, WHO Collaborating Ctr, Vaccine & Infect Dis Inst, Lab Med Microbiol, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium. [Beutels, P.] Univ New S Wales, Sch Publ Hlth & Community Med, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/18375
Link to publication: http://www.eurosurveillance. org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=20998
ISI #: 000348023900004
ISSN: 1560-7917
Category: A1
Type: Journal Contribution
Validation: ecoom, 2016
Appears in Collections: Research publications

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