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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/16803

Title: Assessing Mumps Outbreak Risk in Highly Vaccinated Populations Using Spatial Seroprevalence Data
Authors: Abrams, Steven
Beutels, Philippe
HENS, Niel
Issue Date: 2014
Citation: AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, 179 (8), p. 1006-1017
Abstract: Mumps is a potentially severe viral infection. The incidence of mumps has declined dramatically in high-income countries since the introduction of mumps antigen-containing vaccines. However, recent large outbreaks of mumps in highly vaccinated populations suggest waning of vaccine-induced immunity and primary vaccine failure. In this paper we present a simple method for identifying geographic regions with high outbreak potential, demonstrated using 2006 mumps seroprevalence data from Belgium and Belgian vaccination coverage data. Predictions of the outbreak potential in terms of the effective reproduction number in future years signal an increased risk of new mumps outbreaks. Literature reviews on serological information for both primary vaccine failure and waning immunity provide essential information for our predictions. Tailor-made additional vaccination campaigns would be valuable for decreasing local pockets of susceptibility, thereby reducing the risk of future large-scale mumps outbreaks.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/16803
DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwu014
ISI #: 000334075700009
ISSN: 0002-9262
Category: A1
Type: Journal Contribution
Validation: ecoom, 2015
Appears in Collections: Research publications

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