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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/11044

Title: NUSAP: a method to evaluate the quality of assumptions in quantitative microbial risk assessment
Authors: Boone, Ides
Van der Stede, Yves
Dewulf, Jeroen
Messens, Winy
Daube, Georges
Mintiens, Koen
Issue Date: 2010
Citation: JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH, 13 (3). p. 337-352
Abstract: The Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP) system was implemented to evaluate assumptions in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model for Salmonella spp. in minced pork meat. This QMRA model allows the testing of mitigation strategies for the reduction of human salmonellosis and aims to serve as a basis for science-based policy making. The NUSAP method was used to assess the subjective component of assumptions in the QMRA model by a set of four pedigree criteria: 'the influence of situational limitations', 'plausibility', 'choice space' and 'the agreement among peers'. After identifying 13 key assumptions relevant for the QMRA model, a workshop was organized to assess the importance of these assumptions on the output of the QMRA. The quality of the assumptions was visualized using diagnostic and kite diagrams. The diagnostic diagram pinpointed assumptions with a high degree of subjectivity and a high 'expected influence on the model results' score. Examples of those assumptions that should be dealt with care are the assumptions regarding the concentration of Salmonella on the pig carcass at the beginning of the slaughter process and the assumptions related to the Salmonella prevalence in the slaughter process. The kite diagrams allowed a clear overview of the pedigree scores for each assumption as well as a representation of expert (dis)agreement. The evaluation of the assumptions using the NUSAP system enhanced the debate on the uncertainty and its communication in the results of a QMRA model. It highlighted the model's strong and weak points and was helpful for redesigning critical modules. Since the evaluation of assumptions allows a more critical approach of the QMRA process, it is useful for policy makers as it aims to increase the transparency and acceptance of management decisions based on a QMRA model.
Notes: [Boone, Ides; Van der Stede, Yves; Mintiens, Koen] Vet & Agrochem Res Ctr, Coordinat Ctr Vet Diagnost, Brussels, Belgium. [Dewulf, Jeroen] Univ Ghent, Fac Vet Med, Dept Reprod Obstet & Herd Hlth, Merelbeke, Belgium. [Messens, Winy] Inst Agr & Fisheries Res ILVO, Technol & Food Unit, Melle, Belgium. [Aerts, Marc] Hasselt Univ, Ctr Stat, Diepenbeek, Belgium. [Boone, Ides; Daube, Georges] Univ Liege, Fac Vet Med, Dept Food Sci, Liege, Belgium. yves.vanderstede@var.fgov.be
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/11044
DOI: 10.1080/13669870903564574
ISI #: 000277569200007
ISSN: 1366-9877
Category: A1
Type: Journal Contribution
Validation: ecoom, 2011
Appears in Collections: Research publications

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